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PLASTICS IN THE TWENTIES, ANTEC, CHICAGO 2004

Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006

 

World consumption of plastics and forecasts

The average annual rate of growth of 8.1% that brought all solid polymers from:
7 million tons in the world in 1960
to 160 million tons in 2000
and to continue reaching over 300 million tons in 2010, 530 million tons in 2020, using a more conservative annual rate of 6.5 %.

Total world production/consumption of plastics, since the beginning, at the turn of the twentieth century, kept an average annual rate of growth of 15 %, or doubling every ten years, until 1975, when this trend was broken at the first oil shock, this high growth rate was never achieved again, the average annual growth rate of plastics was 15% from 1960 to 1974, and 8% thereafter, from 1974 to 2000.

The capacity increases are quite different whether considered in total or relatively. The increases of capacities are small in the already industrialized areas. Even though they also are quite high in Africa, it is not significant as they are on a much smaller base, and to stay small. Middle East and Asia Pacific are the leading areas in new commodity plastics capacities, with heavy investment into new crackers, in Iran, in the Persian Gulf, in China, mainly.

Sources
All Pardos Marketing estimates from many sources and data bases.

All figures and comments come from multi-client study, the World Plastics Trilogy, Plastics Supply, Consumption/Applications, Converting Industries and Strategies of world players.

 

 Table 1. Capacity of commodity plastics, in thousands of tons

Main areas 2004 Added to 2010 + % increase 2004-2010
West Europe 42 000 3 200 7.6
C & E Europe 9 400 8 200 87.2
North America 55 200 4 900 8.9
South America 10 300 3 900 37.9
Middle East 10 300 15 200 147.6
Africa 3 200 1 600 50.0
Asia Pacific 76 300 35 900 47.0

 

Table2. World production / consumption of plastics, long term 1960-2020

  1960 1979 2000 2010 2020 AARG
1960-2000
AARG
2000-2020
Commodity 7000 60000 155000 287000 510000 8% 6.15%
Engineering 50 900 4500 12000 24500 12% 8.8%
Specialty 3 40 170 400 1100 11% 9.8%
Composites 0 1 80 200 500 23% 9.6%

 

Table 3. Plastics consumption by major areas, in thousands of tons

Main world areas 2000 2020 AARG*
2000-2020 %
Europe W, C, E 40 000 87 000 4
Eurasia, Russia & others 4 000 19 000 8
North America 45 000 98 000 4
Latin America 11 000 42 000 7
Middle East, incl. TR 4 000 18 000 8
Africa, North & South 2 500 10 000 7
Other Africa 500 1 000 4
China 19 000 153 000 11
India 4 000 38 000 12
Japan 11 000 16 000 2
Other Asia Pacific, rest 13 000 60 000 8

*Average annual rate of growth

 


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