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Françoise Pardos, Pardos Marketing, February 2006


The world economic scene

The world is fast changing, with world changes are accelerating in the next 20 years, with: 

Instantaneous communications,
The Web network just starting now,
Access to disposable income for increasing numbers,
Growing needs for infrastructures,

This is a major phenomenon for mankind, more than Renaissance or Industrial Revolution, but immediately visible and happening much faster. This change of world has become global in less than 15 years.

A change of pace, as
Europe took a century to develop,
The US, 50 years,
Japan, 25 years,
New emerging countries 10 or 15 years, from ploughs to computers.

Why 20 years from now?

This is not so long ago,  as many of us remember 1984, towns are still there and most buildings.
There is higher income and better living for many more.

Most of 2004 could be already forecast in 1984.

So, 2020 is written in large part, in continuing context, and yet there is more than extrapolations, there are breakthroughs to come. In this long term still foreseeable future, the tapering-off of ethylene and petrochemicals is not to happen before 2030-2035.

Population forecasts are tapering-off to 2020.

In the industrialized world, Europe, Russia, N. America, Japan, were 1.5 billions in 2000, and the population will grow slowly to 1.6 billions in 2020, 0.3 %/year.

For the new giants, China, India, Brazil, 2.3 billions, in 2000, to grow 1% /year to 2.8 billions in 2020.

In the new emerging economies, Middle East, Asia/Pacific, Latin America, 1.3 billions in 2000, to grow 1% /year to 1.6 billions in 2020.

And for the laggard areas, most of Africa and a few others, the 2000 population totals are to grow from 1 billion plus in 2000 to 1.3 billions, 1.4% /year.

The total world population of 6.1 billions in 2000 is to reach 7.3 billions in 2020, with average rate of growth of less 1%, markedly slowing down compared to 1980-2000, 1.5%/year.

Gross National Income, GNI, continues to grow

Total world GNI of 31 300 billion dollars in 2000 is to grow an average long term rate of 2.5% /year.

With a total world GNI of 50 000 billion dollars in 2020, the per capita GNI, that was $ 5100 in 2000, will reach $ 6800 in 2020.

There will be free trade for all industrial products in 2020. Major trading areas will develop into blocks, consolidating and extending the existing trade areas:

  • NAFTA and FTAA
  • Economic Union EU and associates
  • Mercosur
  • ASEAN and associates

These forecasts are halfway from those developed by Goldman Sachs on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China, India) emergence as world leaders by 2050.


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